Analytics › Actual vs. theoretical COGS
Actual vs. theoretical COGS
Updated Nov 4, 2026 · 4 min read · For Owners, GMs and kitchen leads
Compare what your food should have cost with what it really cost, so you know how much money slipped away between the delivery and the cup.
What it is
Theoretical COGS is what your food should have cost: everything you sold, made exactly to its recipe, with nothing wasted. Actual COGS is what you really used, worked out from your counts and purchases.
The gap between them is your variance. As a rough guide, a gap of 1 to 2% of revenue is well controlled, and over 3% is worth digging into.
How it works
- Theoretical = what you sold × each item's recipe cost. It needs your POS connected and a recipe on every item and modifier that sells.
- Actual = opening count + purchases − closing count.
The gap only means something when:
- You have two complete counts, one at each end of the period.
- Every delivery in the period is received in Kintow, and any short delivery is entered appropriately.
- Ingredient units and prices are right. Counting in cases when the item is set up in eaches (or the other way round) creates a gap on its own.
- Everything that sells has a recipe, including seasonal items, catering and modifiers.
To see it, go to Insights > P&L and choose Variance above the table. Actual ($ and %) sits next to theoretical (Theo $ and Theo %), with the gap under Var. Red on Total COGS means you used more than you should have. Green on Total COGS usually means a delivery wasn't received in Kintow, not that the kitchen beat its recipes.
What to do with it
We recommend starting with the biggest dollar gaps and ruling out data problems before looking at the kitchen:
- Counts: a missed shelf or the wrong unit. See Fix a submitted count.
- Deliveries: one never received, or received short. See Receive a delivery.
- Recipes: an item with no recipe, or stale prices. See Add a recipe to a menu item.
- Portions: drinks or dishes made bigger than the recipe. You can weigh a few during a rush to check.
- Waste: spoilage and dropped food show up in actual only. If you log waste, it shows as a known cost.
- Untracked use: staff drinks, comps and samples that never ran through the POS.
Step by step: Investigate a variance.
Common questions
What needs to be in place before actual vs theoretical COGS is trustworthy?+−
Two complete counts (opening and closing), every delivery received, right units and prices on your ingredients, and a recipe on everything that sells. If one is missing, most of the gap between actual and theoretical is bad data.
What's a normal gap between actual and theoretical COGS?+−
As a rough guide, 1 to 2% is well controlled and over 3% is worth a look. We recommend starting with counts, unreceived deliveries and recipes, then portions and waste.